A is for Acuna & Advanced Statistics

So… Ronald did homer on the first pitch he saw. That was electric ⬇️

The problem is… 27 outs later the Braves hadn’t put another run across the plate.

But… RAJ homered AGAIN the next day as we beat the Padres 7-1 🔥

The problem is… that was 5/24 and we haven’t won a game since, including being shutout against the Phillies, who we are now 9.5 games back of in the division.

This offense is not good. Period. Today we are 25-28 and it feels as if there is zero fight in this team. So opposite of the last few years. Winning has to happen soon, so how do we fix the offense?

Can Sabermetrics Save the Braves’ Season?

To answer this question, we must first understand what sabermetrics are.

Sabermetrics is the advanced statistical analysis of baseball. The term comes from SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) + "metrics." It focuses on objective, data-driven evaluations of players and teams, going beyond traditional stats like batting average and RBIs to measure true performance and value.

Using these advanced performance measures can help us determine if a team is just getting lucky or unlucky as opposed to actually being good or bad. For instance, comparing a typical statistic to the correlating advanced “expected” statistic.

Matt Olson ranks 98^th in the entire league with a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .315. the difference between wOBA and more common metrics that track offensive performance like On-Base Percentage (OBP) or slugging percentage (SLG) is that it gives more weight/significance to certain outcomes that resulted in the hitter getting on base. While OBP treats all hits equally, wOBA recognizes that a double is worth more than a single and a home run is worth more than a walk.

More simply put, wOBA more accurately tracks the ability of a player to create runs for the team by combining walks, power, and getting on base into one stat.

The EXPECTED wOBA (xwOBA) factors out luck by calculating the true likelihood that a batted ball should turn into a hit. This takes into account exit velocity of the baseball off the bat, launch angle of the hit, and the sprint speed of the player. The xWOBA ignores defense, weather, and luck. For example, if Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs is in centerfield, it is much harder to hit a ball into the gap because he is so good defensively. If he makes a diving catch on a hard-hit line drive, it will negatively impact the hitter’s wOBA, but xwOBA will still consider the action to be a positive because the hitter produced a batted ball with a high likelihood of creating a run for his team.

 So, back to Matt Olson. While his wOBA is only .315, good for 98^th in the league, his xwOBA is a much better .454! This would be good for 20^th in the league. Another crazy discrepancy is our stud rookie Drake Baldwin, whose xwOBA is 277 (!) points higher than his wOBA. That is INSANELY UNLUCKY. 

As a team, the Braves’ Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is only .255, which suggests that many well-struck balls just aren’t resulting in hits. That’s unlucky.

Balls Don’t Lie

All that said, the Braves are hitting just .173 with runners in scoring position (RISP), which is the fourth-WORST in the entire MLB. In other words, we aren’t clutch.

Advanced metrics don’t win games, but despite the frustration and lack of success in the win column, the sabermetrics do suggest that progression to the mean could result in more wins. We just need to stay patient and embrace the marathon of a 162-game season.

GO BRAVES ⚾️ 🪓

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